NEW DELHI – In a snap election held on June 3, Lee Jae-myung of the liberal opposition Democratic Party clinched the presidency of the Republic of Korea, ushering in a new era of leadership after a period of significant political turbulence. Lee’s victory follows the tumultuous ouster of conservative former President Yoon Suk-yeol, whose controversial December declaration of martial law plunged the nation into chaos and ultimately led to his impeachment. With Lee now at the helm, speculation is rife about what his leadership will mean for the perpetually fraught relationship between South Korea and its northern neighbor, the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Lee Jae-myung, a former factory worker, human rights lawyer, Seongnam city mayor, and Gyeonggi province governor, rose from poverty to become a prominent figure in South Korean politics. Yoon Suk-yeol defeated him by a slim margin in the 2022 presidential election. Following Lee’s victory, he stated his intention to revive the economy and guarantee that martial law would never be imposed in the country again. However, although he won by a wide margin over his primary opponent, Kim Moon-soo of the People Power Party, who received 41 percent of the vote, the election results reveal the country’s deep division.
Lee’s approach to the North differs significantly from Yoon’s approach. Lee has consistently emphasized the value of cooperation and communication in bringing about peace, while Yoon’s administration shunned talks with the North and concentrated on thwarting its nuclear aspirations. In his inauguration speech, Lee emphasized South Korea’s commitment to its security alliance with the United States while urging dialogue with North Korea to bring peace to the Korean Peninsula.
This dual approach, emphasizing both strong deterrence and renewed engagement, echoes the policies pursued by previous liberal governments in South Korea, notably the “Sunshine Policy” of Kim Dae-jung (1998-2003) and the “Peace and Prosperity Policy” of Roh Moo-hyun (2003-2008). The Sunshine Policy, initiated by Kim Dae-jung, aimed at achieving peaceful coexistence and national unification through the dismantling of the Cold War structure on the peninsula, leading to historic inter-Korean summits and increased exchanges. Lee Jae-myung has expressed his intent to inherit and develop these policies, aiming to establish a “Korean Peninsula peace economy system” where peace leads to economic development, and economic cooperation solidifies peace.
North Korea has also officially acknowledged the victory of Lee Jae-myung in South Korea’s recent presidential election. The acknowledgment came in a brief, factual report published in the ruling party’s newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, just a day after Lee was officially declared president. The report stated that the election was held on June 3, two months after the impeachment of former President Yoon Suk-yeol following the “December 3rd extraordinary martial law incident,” and confirmed that Democratic Party of Korea candidate Ri Jae-myong (Lee Jae-myung) was elected as the 21st president. Notably, the report contained no commentary or criticism regarding the election outcome or the new president. This brief, unadorned response may be a subtle indication that Pyongyang is closely monitoring developments in the South, even while maintaining its current posture of disengagement —a pattern also observed in its handling of previous South Korean elections. There has also been a noticeable linguistic shift in Pyongyang’s rhetoric. State media now refers to the South as “Hanguk” (한국), the term South Koreans use to describe their country, rather than “Nam Chosŏn” (남조선), the North’s traditional terminology for “Southern Korea.” Since scrapping its reunification policy in early 2024, the North has made a deliberate effort to distance itself from the South, framing the two Koreas as separate states with no shared national identity.
Lee proposes a practical approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear issue, suggesting conditional sanctions relief (snapback) and phased simultaneous action. This involves simultaneously implementing North Korea’s denuclearization measures and corresponding sanctions relief, with the condition that sanctions would be immediately restored if Pyongyang fails to uphold its denuclearization commitments. He argues that this phased, simultaneous approach is more realistic and practical than pursuing a “big deal” where North Korea would abandon its nuclear program all at once. Lee also intends to strengthen South Korea’s leading role in resolving the nuclear issue, positioning the country as a more substantive and active mediator and problem-solver. He has expressed a willingness to meet directly with US President Trump and the Chairman of the DPRK State Affairs Commission, Kim Jong Un, to resolve the issues.
Beyond the nuclear issue, Lee advocates for practical, mutually beneficial relations that promote economic development and improve the livelihoods of people in both North and South Korea. He supports the implementation of previously agreed-upon economic and social cooperation projects, as well as the institutionalization of measures to reduce military tension. For projects tied to UN sanctions, such as the Kaesong Industrial Complex and connecting railways and roads, Lee plans to persuade the UN to grant comprehensive and standing exemptions. He also prioritizes humanitarian efforts, such as facilitating regular reunions for separated families, allowing North Korean visits to ancestral homes, and facilitating funerals and tomb relocations in the North.
Despite Lee’s stated intentions and ambitious policy goals, the path to improving inter-Korean relations might prove to be very difficult. Under the previous Yoon administration, relations deteriorated significantly, with Kim Jong Un declaring the “Republic of Korea,” its primary enemy and abandoning the long-standing goal of reunification. North Korea has since ceased all contact and economic collaboration with the South. Recent actions by North Korea – overseeing strategic cruise missile tests, ordering full nuclear readiness, and criticizing joint military drills with the US – demonstrate a continued focus on military strength and hostile rhetoric. They have also taken symbolic steps like destroying the road connecting the two Koreas. This hardened stance means Kim Jong Un is unlikely to be easily responsive to renewed engagement offers from Seoul.
By sending troops to “liberate” Kursk Oblast, which was occupied by Ukrainian Forces, and possibly receiving cutting-edge military equipment in exchange, North Korea has also deepened its relationship with the Russian Federation. North Korea now has greater leverage thanks to this new alliance, which may reduce its perceived need to interact with the United States or South Korea. It is anticipated that Kim Jong Un will demand substantial inducements to resume any negotiations. Lee’s emphasis on human rights as central to engagement, including discussing the return of Korean War prisoners, may also be a point of contention with Pyongyang. Domestically, Lee’s administration faces the challenge of a deeply polarized South Korean population. While some citizens may support engagement, there is also skepticism towards North Korea, particularly after past instances of unpredictability and a perceived lack of reciprocity. Lee has promised to implement his North Korean policies “with the people,” recognizing that while the public favors humanitarian and economic cooperation, it does not support unilateral policies that do not elicit a response from North Korea.
Seoul’s foreign policy is still based on the US-South Korea alliance. The presence of US troops and disputes over defense burden sharing are two possible points of contention, though. The Trump administration, which has taken a tough stance against Beijing and expects its allies to follow suit, may become resentful of Lee’s ambition for a more balanced relationship with regional powers, including strengthening ties with China. According to Lee, South Korea should not have to decide between China and the US. It will be crucial to see how he handles this delicate balancing act.
Lee Jae-myung takes office at a pivotal moment, inheriting a country riven by political unrest and confronting formidable domestic and global obstacles. Based on the achievements of previous liberal administrations, his goal to revitalize inter-Korean relations through engagement and economic cooperation is evident. He wants to work with both the United States and China and pursue a practical foreign policy focused on the country’s interests.
However, his North Korea policy will have to overcome a complex web of challenges, including South Korea’s deep-seated internal divisions, North Korea’s ingrained animosity and unpredictability, and the evolving nature of great power competition. His ability to build national consensus, maintain a strong alliance with the United States while pursuing a more balanced regional approach, and find creative ways to incentivize a recalcitrant North Korea will determine whether his presidency marks a new era of peace and stability on the peninsula or merely another chapter in a long history of rivalry and tension. As Lee himself has stated, “Peace is always cheaper than war,” but achieving it with an unwilling partner remains perhaps the most daunting challenge of his political life.
Samyak Mishra
Samyak Mishra is pursuing International Relations, Political Science, and China Studies at Ashoka University, India. His academic interests center on East Asian authoritarianism and totalitarianism, the politics of one-party states, and civil-military relations, with a particular focus on the ideological and institutional foundations of the People’s Republic of China and the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
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