New Delhi – India-US relations have been in a sweet spot for the last twenty-five years, starting with the visit of US President Bill Clinton to India in March 2000. There has been a bipartisan consensus in India and the US regarding stronger and more dynamic ties between the two nations.
There was considerable anxiety in most countries in the world at the election of Donald Trump as the 47th President of the United States. This increased manifold looking at the flurry of Executive Orders Trump signed and the aggressive statements made by him immediately after his inauguration on domestic and foreign policy issues, including illegal migration, tariffs, China, Canada, Mexico, Panama Canal, Greenland, etc. The reason for global apprehension is because Trump is known to be unpredictable. In his first term, Trump was seen as unsure primarily because his election in 2016 came as a shock, not only to the world but also to himself.
His decisive win in 2024 has imbued Trump with greater confidence to carry through his Agenda to “Make America Great Again.” He has nominated his loyalists to all significant positions in his Cabinet.
India has felt somewhat reassured by the underlying structural factors binding India and the USA and the cordial relations between PM Modi and President Trump. This is reflected in the expected early visit and meeting between PM Modi and Trump. PM Modi would be one of the first world leaders to visit the White House at Trump’s invitation when he goes to the US, as reported on 12th-14th February 2025. India is sanguine it will be able to effectively navigate the relationship to make it stronger.
This sentiment was evident in recent conversations between Modi and Trump, especially on 27th January 2025, which happened soon after Trump’s inauguration. Referring to this warm and friendly conversation, PM Modi stated in his message on X that the two countries “are committed to a mutually beneficial and trusted partnership. We will work together for the welfare of our people and towards global peace, prosperity, and security.” After participating in President Trump’s inauguration, this was also the message that EAM Dr S Jaishankar gave while Addressing a Press Conference in Washington DC on 22nd January. Jaishankar said that his interactions with the incoming Trump Administration had led him to believe that there was “an agreement, a consensus between us that we need to be bolder, we need to be bigger, we need to be more ambitious.”
However, it needs to be kept in mind that 2025 is not 2017. The world has changed, and so has Trump. Trump 2.0 is much more self-confident, self-assured, unencumbered, and impulsive than he was eight years ago.
India-US Relations in Trump 1.0
During Donald Trump’s first term as President (2017-21), India emerged as an indispensable partner to the United States. The Trump administration backed India on the issue of terrorism. It supported the designation of Jaish-e-Mohammed chief as a global terrorist by the UN Security Council and the grey listing of Pakistan by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF). India-US defense ties also received a significant boost as India was elevated to Tier 1 of the Strategic Trade Authorization (STA). This license exception allows the export, re-export, and transfer of certain items without a license. This placed India at par with NATO allies of the US for the import of sensitive technologies and for speeding up the sale of high-tech defense and non-defense products that are otherwise subject to strict controls and licensing. This led to India’s defense procurement from the US climbing to $18 billion in 2019.
On the geostrategic front, Trump was the first US President to identify China as a “strategic competitor” (China took great offense at this nomenclature). This resulted in the resurrection of the Quad (Australia, India, Japan, USA) at a senior official level in November 2017 on the margins of the East Asia Summit in Manila, Philippines. It also led to the naming of the US Pacific Command as the US Indo-Pacific Command and the rechristening of Asia-Pacific as the Indo-Pacific. During this period, India signed the two remaining Foundational Defense Agreements, viz., the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018 and the long pending Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement (BECA) for geo-spatial Cooperation in 2020. To foster the energy sector, Trump 1.0 witnessed the launch of a bilateral Strategic Energy Partnership in 2018. This led to India’s increased import of crude and LNG from the US. The period also saw two major public events in which both PM Modi and President Trump participated, viz. the “Howdy Modi” gathering organized by the Indian Diaspora in Houston, Texas, in September 2019 and “Namaste Trump” in Ahmedabad in February 2020.
However, the bilateral relations were also marked by challenges like differences over tariff regime, issues related to immigration, Trump’s offer to mediate between India and Pakistan on the Kashmir issue, etc.
Likely Contours of India-US Ties in Trump 2.0
Some issues that could occupy center stage in India-US relations, particularly during PM Modi’s forthcoming visit to the US, are given below:
Illegal Migration: India has categorically stated that it does not support its nationals staying illegally in the US or any other country. As in the past, it would accept those who are staying in the US illegally once their identity as Indian citizens is confirmed. The first planeload of Indian deportees in Trump 2.0 arrived in India on 5th February 2025.
H1B Visas: Trump and Elon Musk have spoken out forcefully in favor of the legal migration of skilled professionals. Some opposition to this is visible from the MAGA support base, but Trump should be able to overcome it. There has been some misuse of the H1B provisions. India will welcome suitable reforms so that H1B is used genuinely for the intended purpose.
Birthright Citizenship: The US Constitution grants citizenship to any person born in the US. Withdrawal of this facility will affect several Indian H1B professionals. Several US courts have challenged the Trump Administration’s decision on this issue. The future of this provision is uncertain. India may not expend its political capital on this issue.
Tariffs and Trade: Trump has called India the “Tariff King/Tariff Abuser” and threatened to take action against the much higher tariffs it imposes on US products than the US does on Indian imports. India had a trade surplus of $36.74 billion with US in 2023-24. India is 13th on the list of countries with a trade surplus with the US. China, Mexico, Vietnam, Ireland, and several others have much higher trade surpluses with the US. However, India is in the crosshairs of Trump because of its higher tariffs. India should offer some concrete concessions for technologically advanced products in which the US has a significant commercial interest. India fired the first salvo by reducing import duties on Harley Davidson (which was of particular interest to Trump in his first term) and high-end luxury cars (read Tesla) in the Budget on 1st February 2025. The visit by PM Modi to the US in mid-February 2025 would be an eminently useful opportunity to stay ahead of the curve and come to an understanding in the initial stages of Trump 2.0 on this sensitive issue. In Trump 1.0, discussions were held on a mini-Trade Deal. These could be revived to ensure that the issue does not boil over.
Several economists have recommended that India should significantly rationalize its tariff structure to integrate itself with Global Value and Supply Chains. A voluntary reduction in tariffs while ensuring protection to sensitive sectors like agriculture, dairy, etc., would provide a strong fillip to the economy, which has been faltering in recent months.
China: Trump has been sending mixed signals regarding China since his election. These relate to the retraction of his threat to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, his invitation to Chinese President Xi Jinping to his inauguration, his turnaround on TikTok, his warm conversation with Xi Jinping to “do everything possible to make the World more peaceful and safe!” This indicates Trump’s desire to have a positive working relationship with China.
To strengthen his negotiating leverage, Trump has imposed 10 percent (as against the 60 percent he had threatened earlier) tariffs on China. This could provide space for Indian products in the US market. Trump’s pushback could also result in foreign investments relocating to other destinations. India should be ready not to miss the China +1 Investment opportunity this time.
Even if the US gets a satisfactory Trade Deal with China, its relations are likely to be contentious because China’s end objective is to displace the US as the hegemon of the world. China will not take its eyes off this goal, irrespective of what tactical arrangements it enters into with the US.
India should closely watch the evolving ties between the USA and China and, while further expanding its relations with the US, work towards non-confrontational ties with China.
Defense: Trump has pressed for a greater import of US security equipment by India. The US has emerged as the second largest supplier in recent years, with an inventory of over $25 billion. India should insist on greater technology transfer and more joint development and production of sophisticated systems and platforms.
Technology: India and the US embarked on an ambitious collaboration in critical and emerging technologies during the Biden Administration, specifically in India’s semiconductor manufacturing, with support from several US companies. Mike Waltz, the new National Security Adviser, is the point person for this. Waltz understands India well having been co-Chair of India Caucus. Cooperation in this vital sector should not only continue but also be expanded. This is likely to be a critical theme of deliberations during PM Modi’s upcoming visit.
Geopolitics: The Indo-Pacific and Quad: The first meeting of Quad foreign ministers was held one day after President Trump’s inauguration. Collaboration towards a free, open, and prosperous Indo-Pacific and ensuring freedom of navigation and overflights in the Indo-Pacific would be a priority issue for the Trump Administration. The next Quad Summit will take place in India.
It is understood that Trump wishes to quickly disengage from the conflicts in West Asia and Europe and devote full attention to developments in the Indo-Pacific. Pressure on China against its aggressive policies in the South and East China Seas and elsewhere will continue unabated. Notwithstanding Trump’s initial conflicting signals about China, China will remain a significant “strategic competitor” to the US.
Conclusion
India is confident it will be able to steer India-US ties on an upward trajectory during Trump 2.0. This is reflected in the warm and friendly conversation between PM Modi and President Trump on 27th January. Convergence on bilateral, regional, and global issues is much greater than divergences on some aspects. India would be ready to have intense negotiations on trade, tariffs, immigration, defense procurement, and other matters to arrive at mutually advantageous win-win solutions.
India is sanguine that the Trump Administration will put its Deep State, which has been interfering in India’s internal affairs, on a tight leash. Also, there will be a greater meeting of minds on regional issues, particularly on the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in India’s neighborhood, especially in Bangladesh. India will, however, need to be vigilant, alert, and nimble to safeguard its core interests of security, stability, and well-being.
India-US relations are poised to advance rapidly in the foreseeable future and be a force for bilateral and global peace, security, and prosperity. The imminent visit by PM Modi to Washington DC will be an optimal opportunity to navigate the bilateral ties to fresh heights of Cooperation and partnership.
Ambassador Ashok Sajjanhar
Ashok Sajjanhar is President, Institute of Global Studies, and a former Ambassador of India to Kazakhstan, Sweden and Latvia.
