MUMBAI, India – The new Canadian government has brought with it a summer of hope. The Indo-Canadian troubles of last year seem to be melting into the past. Though not out of the woods yet, both camps are making the right noises.
Carney’s G7 invitation to India’s PM Narendra Modi has elicited mixed reactions across Canada, from Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre’s acknowledgment that India was a necessary invitee and the Khalistani supporters’ meltdown. This is Canada’s – CAR-NAMA moment for Carney and Narendra Modi (Namo), which could help turn the page on Indo-Canadian relationships. Carnama in Hindi translates to miracle, or brave act.
Mark Carney’s Liberal government has been eager to distance itself from Trudeau’s image and policies while quietly working through back channels with global players, such as India.
Canadian Foreign Minister Anita Anand and Indian External Affairs Minister Dr. S. Jaishankar’s phone diplomacy facilitated Modi’s acceptance for the G-7 after other partners felt it imperative for India to be present. India and Canada have moved a step further, with an intelligence-sharing understanding, to combat the rising threat of international crime and extremism. This came out of the left field and has truly set the cat amongst the pigeons in Canada in the wake of Justin Trudeau’s allegations against India last year.
Canada’s headache has been the US tariffs against Canadian exports to the USA, making all things Canadian more expensive. This, in turn, has driven prices up, affected jobs, and brought in higher inflation in Canada.
Rumors suggest that a back-channel trade deal between India and Canada may not be far away, signaling Canada’s return as an Indian frontline trading partner, not as ‘America’s 51st state’ but as a proud nation rich in heritage and the world’s largest natural resources.
India is an insatiable consumer of minerals, fuels, pulses, fertilizers, steel, pearls and precious stones, oil and gas, and nuclear fuel. India’s earliest nuclear reactors were built with Canada’s help in the early 1970s, and this could kickstart a new wave of mini-reactor technology across India.
There are also products such as lumber, organic chemicals, and plastics, as well as international students across Canada. According to the COMTRADE database on international trade, India’s imports from Canada were $6.26 billion in 2024, compared to $7.5 billion in 2023, when the Trudeau allegations impacted trade. Given the jump from $ 2.7 billion in 2022 to $7.5 billion in 2023, there is ample scope to increase that number to $10 billion by 2026/2027.
According to an Agriculture Canada report, in 2022, India imported $35.4 billion Canadian dollars worth of processed food and beverages, with Canada supplying only CA$20.9 million (0.1%) of that total. There is a case for Canada to increase it by 10 times within the next year or two. India’s largest imports from the world were palm oil, soya bean oil, and sunflower oil, and Canada’s share was negligible or non-existent.
Defense, Nuclear, automobiles, and housing are just a few of the sectors for Indo-Canadian cooperation, with India being one of the major QUAD players in the Pacific security region.
With the Nijjar case locked into the Canadian legal system, the gaze now moves to India’s concerns about Khalistani terror within Canada and their transnational terror and extortion plots in India.
CAR-NAMA will have to learn to hyphenate their relationships with the USA, as both nations, India and Canada, learn to deal with American tariffs and maintain their happy positions of strength in the relationship.
For the Mark Carney government, this is both a moment of reckoning and a chance to seize the initiative — and Carney will find a very willing ally in Modi’s India.
Sanjay Lazar
Sanjay Lazar is an Analyst, Lawyer, Author & commentator, who writes on International relations, Aviation and law. He is @sjlazars on @x.
