Vancouver, Canada – With the NDP withdrawing its support for the supply-and-confidence agreement, allegations of treason, and a caucus revolt, it seems like everything is going wrong for the Liberals. With an election that could technically take place anytime within the next year, winning seems like an impossible mountain to climb. With CBC giving the Tories a 19-point lead in polling, the person who appears to be taking the bulk of the blame is, of course, none other than the party leader, Justin Trudeau. It seems like throwing him out as the leader could certainly help the Liberal Party’s chances, but it’s not as simple as it looks.
To understand how Trudeau ended up in this sticky situation, we have to look closely at his time as Prime Minister. Throughout his almost decade-long tenure, controversies and scandals have been found in plentiful supplies. Whether it be pressuring the Attorney General to intervene in a criminal case against the SNC Lavalin to avoid prosecution for bribery or awarding a lucrative contract to the WE Charity that had close ties to his family, it’s obvious that Trudeau has angered some people along the way. On top of that, Canada’s poor economic performance has been a clear point of frustration among Canadians. High inflation in the aftermath of COVID, the housing crisis, the rising cost of living, and incredibly low productivity on top of the highly unpopular carbon tax, which the Conservatives have wasted no time scrutinizing, have certainly not helped his case.
As it stands, the party is clearly in no position to take on the Tories. Some polls even predict the Liberals falling behind Yves-Francois Blanchet’s Bloc Québécois, taking them out of the spot of the official opposition and potentially embarrassing them even further. It’s no surprise they’ve gone into panic mode.
Twenty-four Members of Parliament from Trudeau’s own party have taken matters into their own hands and signed an anonymous letter calling on Trudeau to step down as leader to save the party from electoral disgrace. The letter read to Trudeau in a party caucus meeting gave Trudeau an ultimatum with a deadline of October 28th — make a choice about your future as the leader or face the consequences. The details of these consequences have yet to be specified.
A party rebellion is growing fast. Many of the caucus members think a fresh start is needed, and as New Brunswick MP Wayne Long put it, “We need to make sure we put our best foot forward going into an election.” Although Trudeau has firmly stood his ground and has stated he will be staying on as leader into the next federal election, would a change in leadership really be able to save the sinking Liberal ship?
If Trudeau does end up stepping down, a competent replacement would have to be found quickly. Given that there are currently 153 sitting Liberal MPs, the immediate shortlist provides an array of options; however, it’s unlikely that they would be able to make a big enough impact.
All eyes would immediately go to the second in command, Chrystia Freeland, who serves as the Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance. Freeland, who’s had her fair share of cabinet roles such as international trade, foreign affairs, and intergovernmental affairs, is a pretty well-recognized name in Canadian households. However, because of Canada’s economic track record as of late, voters would raise doubts about her competency, given she’s been the Finance Minister for the past four years. Although her support would be strong among already established Liberal supporters, it would be incredibly difficult for her to sway undecided voters even though that’s precisely what they need to do.
Another potential and solid pick for party leader would be the former Governor of the Bank of Canada from 2008-2013, Mark Carney. Carney, most well-known for his central role in helping Canada avoid the worst impacts of the 2008 financial crisis, became a renowned figure in public service, with Reader’s Digest even naming him “Editor’s Choice for Most Trusted Canadian.” After a stint as the Governor of the Bank of England, Carney now works in the private sector as well as serving as the UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance. This September, he became a special advisor and the chair of the Liberal’s task force on economic growth, indicating a potential return to politics. Although Carney isn’t currently in the House of Commons, he could still enter a leadership contest and win, as the rules of the Liberal Party of Canada do not require a leader to be an elected MP immediately. Carney’s familiar face and economic expertise have the potential to attract support in the wake of Canada’s current state; however, as a person who’s never served an elected position before, his learning curve would be steep, possibly becoming a point of concern for voters.
Other options include Foreign Affairs Minister Melanie Joly, Minister of Public Safety Dominic LeBlanc, and former British Columbia Premier Christy Clark. With tensions with India escalating—marked by the expulsion of Indian diplomats after evidence linked the Indian government to the 2023 killing of Khalistan advocate Hardeep Singh Nijjar, on top of allegations of foreign interference involving China—it’s safe to say that neither Joly nor LeBlanc are likely to get the nod anytime soon. As for Christy Clark, who recently stated that she was interested in running for party leadership, it’s quite a stretch given that first of all, she’s a centrist with no real party affiliation, and second, her tenure as Premier was highly unpopular with her being ranked as the most disliked party leader in the 2017 provincial election. BC, which is allocated 43 out of 343 seats in Parliament (the third most out of the provinces), is important for winning an election, but resentment towards Clark among BC voters certainly will not help the Liberal’s success in the region.
The Federal Election is slated to take place in October of next year, but given the volatility of the Parliament—with both the NDP and Liberals revolting against Trudeau and a vote of no confidence motion having the potential to be triggered any time until then—the window of opportunity to steer things around for the party is slim; however, it’s not impossible.
In the early days of the 2015 election, the Liberals sat third in the polls behind the NDP and the Conservatives, but through strategic positioning, capitalizing on Conservative missteps, and a bit of rebranding, they finished the election with a majority government, but it’s been a long time since 2015. The Conservatives had been in power for almost a decade at the time of that election, and people were fatigued. Stephen Harper’s approval rating sat around the 30s, similar to what Trudeau sits at today, and it seems inevitable that the Liberals will ultimately meet the same fate the Tories faced in 2015, no matter who’s leading.
So, will Pollievre and the Conservatives finally defeat the Liberals after three consecutive failed attempts? It would seem so. Is it possible for the Liberals to boot Trudeau and steer the party to form a government for the fourth time in a row? It’s unlikely, but still, it’s not impossible. Given the turbulent state of Canadian politics, anything could happen, but we’ll just have to wait for time to tell.
Joven Heer
Joven is currently a Grade 12 student based in Vancouver, Canada. He loves biking, playing the piano, watching soccer, traveling, eating new food, writing and keeping up with politics!
